Lecture C1 (2023-01-31): Introduction to Resilience Thinking

In this lecture, we introduce the topic of "resilience" as applied to social-ecological systems, and related terms such as (resilience) thresholds and vulnerability. This allows us to introduce the notions of "complex adaptive systems" (CAS) in contrast with "simple" systems or even "complicated" systems. Complex adaptive systems sometimes admit multiple steady states and "stability regimes", which we demonstrate with an example from fisheries management. This example motivates the "ball-in-a-basin" dynamical systems conceptual model that we will use as we move on to discuss critical slowing down next time. Next time, we will also define adaptability and transformability, two other important concepts in resilience thinking.

Whiteboard notes for this lecture can be found at: https://www.dropbox.com/s/70l5mbl77zhwmun/SOS220-LectureC1-2023-01-30-Introduction_to_Resilience_Thinking.pdf?dl=0

Lecture B2 (2023-01-26): Real-world Examples of System "Traps"

In this lecture, we define the term "bounded rationality" as a sort of higher-level modeling trap that often leads to policy choices that can be described in terms of some of the problematic "systems traps" (systems archetypes) described in earlier lectures. We spend most of the lecture providing concrete examples of several of the archetypes, either from history or from general phenomena that frequently occur in human systems. This lets us describe "policy resistance" and how something like the abortion policy decisions in Romania in the 1960's can be viewed with multiple system archetype "lenses" (borrowing an idea from Kim and Lannon, 1997) that each highlight a different aspect of solutions tried and the problems associated with each of them. This lecture is meant to be a library of examples of applications of systems archetypes. The only major new thing introduced in this lecture is "bounded rationality" (and "policy resistance"). The lecture also helps differentiate between "fixes that fail" and "shifting the burden", which are two very related archetypes that lead to focusing on different aspects of the same system.

Whiteboard notes for this lecture can be found at: https://www.dropbox.com/s/hce5ypgggontqlg/SOS220-LectureB2-2023-01-26-Real-world_examples_of_system_traps.pdf?dl=0

Lecture B1 (2023-01-19): "Applying Systems Archetypes" by Kim and Lannon (1997) and "Using the Archetype Family Tree as a Diagnostic Tool" by Goodman and Kleiner (1993)

In this lecture, we finish discussing causal loop diagrams (CLD's), picking up with a discussion of negative- and positive-feedback loops. We discuss how to identify these loops in a CLD and some common traps related to these two loops. We then move on to briefly discuss "Applying Systems Archetypes" by Kim and Lannon (1997) and "Using the Archetype Family Tree as a Diagnostic Tool" by Goodman and Kleiner (1993).

Whiteboard notes for this lecture can be found at: https://www.dropbox.com/s/wey0qyb87rc1lhl/SOS220-LectureB1-2023-01-19-Applying_Systems_Archetypes_and_Archetype_Family_Tree.pdf?dl=0

Lecture A3 (2023-01-17): Causal Loop Diagrams and Model Building

In this lecture, we review the basic concept of a system as a group of interrelated components, and then we move on to describe dynamical models that represent systems and help to answer "What If" questions. "Variables" in these models can be endogenous, exogenous, or excluded entirely for model simplicity and research-question relevance. We then go into re-introducing the causal loop diagram (CLD), which is itself a kind of qualitative model that captures the systemic structures in a system of interest. We give the rules for naming variables in a CLD, we discuss the formation of causal links, and then we save feedback loops (and their polarities and related traps) for the next lecture.

Whiteboard notes for this lecture can be found at: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ugnh0133vchbg69/SOS220-LectureA3-2023-01-17-Causal_Loop_Diagrams_and_Model_Building.pdf?dl=0

Lecture A2 (2023-01-12): "Introduction to Systems Thinking" by Kim (1999)

In this lecture, we review "Introduction to Systems Thinking" by Kim (1999), which defines a "system" and motivates the "feedback-loop worldview" (in contrast with an "event-oriented worldview"). We start by contrasting "systems" and simple "collections." We then move on to talking about events, patterns, and systemic structures, and how finding systemic structures (which are cryptic although events are observable) can lead to finding "leverage points" that allow for choosing small actions that have big changes in system behavior. We start to introduce causal loop diagrams (CLD's) and behavior over time (BOT) graphs (BOTG). We will continue our discussion of CLD's in the next lecture.

Lecture A1 (2023-01-10): Course Introduction

In this lecture, we introduce SOS 220 (Systems Thinking) for the Spring 2023 semester. The lecture mainly consists of a syllabus overview and then a few brief comments about systems thinking.

Whiteboard notes for this lecture can be found at: https://www.dropbox.com/s/r5hv6vax1y5bj6d/SOS220-LectureA1-2023-01-10-Introduction.pdf?dl=0